Driven by a combination of seasonal slowing, winter weather conditions, and ongoing uncertainty regarding tariffs and economic conditions, spot truckload volumes trended down in February, according to the new edition of the DAT Truckload Index, which was issued today by DAT Freight and Analytics.
The DAT Truckload Volume Index reflects the change in the number of loads with a pickup date during that month, with the actual index number normalized each month to accommodate any new data sources without distortion, with a baseline of 100 equal to the number of loads moved in January 2015. It measures dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed trucks moved by truckload carriers.
DAT’s data highlighted the following takeaways for truckload volumes, and rates, for the month of February, including:
- the van TVI, at 258, was down 8.5% compared to January and up 5% annually (its 11th straight positive annual reading);
- the refrigerated TVI, at 212, was down 11.3% compared to January and up 9% annually;
- the flatbed TVI, at 256, was up 0.4% compared to January and up 2.7% annually;
- national average spot rates, for each three segments, were mixed, from January to February, with van down $0.11, to $2.04 per mile, refrigerated down $0.18, to $2.36, and flatbed up $0.01, to $2.45);
- linehaul rates, which DAT said subtract an amount equal to an average fuel surcharge, were also mixed from January to February, with van down $0.11, to $1.64 per mile, refrigerated down $0.19, to $1.92, and flatbed up $0.01, to $1.97 (DAT said that spot flatbed rates moved higher, particularly for construction materials, machinery, steel, and oversized cargo, with the threat of higher tariffs, in some cases, prompting shippers to move these shipments ahead in advance of policy changes);
- national average contract rates were mixed, with the contract van rate, at $2.43 per mile, down $0.01 sequentially and down $0.07 annually, the reefer rate, at $2.75 per mile, flat sequentially and down $0.14 annually; and the contract flatbed rate, at $3.05 per mile, down $0.02 sequentially and down $0.07 annually; and
- the difference between contract and spot rates for vans and reefers saw a widening in February, for the first expansion since September 2024, with van, at $0.39 per mile, up $0.10 over January, reefer, at $0.39 per mile, up $0.18 over January; and flatbed, at $0.60 per mile, down $0.03 compared to January
DAT Chief of Analytics Ken Adamo noted in the report that freight shippers and brokers were eager to put February behind them, despite favorable spot rates for van and reefer freight. He also noted that uncertainty about the economy and the artificial acceleration of freight movements ahead of tariff deadlines could result in a flattened peak shipping season in spring and early summer.
In an interview with LM, Adamo described February’s market activity as a slog, of sorts, citing backsliding in terms of volumes, as well as rates, with the caveat that for anyone involved in contract freight—on the broker or carrier side—the month was not as bad as the data suggests.
“There was a lot of sentiment that 2025 was going to certainly be the rebound year that a lot of shippers budgeted for not tremendous price increases, but certainly flat rates either,” he said. “When shippers looked at their budgets last year, they went to their bosses and said they expected 5%-to-7% budgetary increases, because everyone’s saying the market’s going to go up. One side might say it’s going to go up 5%, the other side might say it’s going to go up 50% and then I’m going to kind of attenuate where that actually is. What we’re seeing is that for the bids that are getting put in, they’re putting in those high single or maybe even pushing very low, double-digit price increases and they’re not losing a ton of volume. I think that’s kind of one of the contributing factors. They’re essentially banking some second half success in the bid awards, because by the time they go into the system and all the contracts get in, those rates won’t start flowing until probably early-to-mid Q2 to late Q2 but you’ll have a lot of second half carry over it. The current spot market is probably the last little bit of true pain.”
Addressing market conditions as they relate to tariffs, Adamo explained that the on-and-off again approach to tariffs by the White House is creating what he called the most uncertain period for the market since the pandemic.
With the pandemic, he explained that when things came back online after being shut down, there was at least some certainty that things were stabilizing, whereas with tariffs, in conversations DAT has had with shippers and brokers, it is difficult to get a read on conditions from day to day.
“These things have massive sector-level impacts,” he said.
But on the flatbed side, he said that overall conditions are smoother, partially due to tariffs and pull-forward activity, signs of lower interest rates and inflation, coupled with the expectation of housing starts heading up for a few months, making flatbed market conditions the best they have been going back to 2017.
When asked about the retaliatory tariffs Canada is placing on the U.S. on $20.8 billion worth of goods in response to the U.S. recently implementing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum products imported into the country, Adamo downplayed the impact on the U.S. market, observing that the painful part being that it will unequivocally hurt the Canadian domestic carriers more than U.S. carriers.
“The Canadian carriers can’t come here and run point-to-point,” he said. “But as the American supply chains try to internally seek things to avoid the tariffs, that’s just going to pump more freight, theoretically, into the carrier base. And there’s more U.S. freight to go around. So, the thinking being there isn’t as much intra-Canada freight to go around. I think that’s kind of the rub here is that it’s going to definitely hurt intra-Canadian or any Canadian carrier that’s going to have to go find intra-Canadian freight a lot more than it would.”
