United States-bound imports saw gains in March, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
The firm reported that March imports, at 2.75 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), rose 10.2% annually, rising for the 19th consecutive quarter. For the first quarter, total imports, at 8.14 million TEU, saw a 9.1% annual increase (first quarter numbers come with a caveat, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, due to 2024 being a leap year and having one less day in February 2025 making that annual data “understated,” it said).
Consumer goods imports paced May’s numbers, increasing 17.9% annually (excluding autos), with imports of home furnishings up 23.3%, appliances up 14.4%, and consumer staples up 14.0%, paced by a 17.3% annual gain for pharmaceuticals, which the firm said may have been due to a pending Section 232 review of imports. Leisure products and toys were up 8.4% and 5.6%, respectively. And “long-lived” consumer goods, which it said are relatively unaffected by fashion or new technology developments that can be warehoused for longer, saw the fastest rates of growth, with home furnishings and appliances seeing annual respective import gains of 23.3% and 14.4%.
S&P Global Market Intelligence added that ongoing growth for shipments of consumer staples reflects the introduction of new tariffs and also future tariff uncertainty.
Industrial imports showed a wider range, with raw materials up 15.2% annually, due to a 22.3% increase for chemicals, with capital equipment up 7.2% annually, with the firm citing lower shipments of electrical components and electrical equipment.
The firm observed that while Peak Season manufacturing and shipping decisions are made during the second quarter—with peak inbound shipments typically arriving in October, from 2016-2019, whereas in 2024, September was the peak month because of concerns related to a potential port strike, 2025 is different, in that the “potential for tariff-reducing deals could lead to later decision-making.”
Looking ahead, the firm explained that declines in U.S.-bound imports are likely in the coming quarters, based on fundamental data for consumer and industrial purchases suggesting weaker demand, adding that “the drag from tariffs may lead to U.S. imports of container freight falling by 3.0% year over year in the second quarter, accelerating to 4.9% in the third,” also noting that “Decision making is also complicated by volatile shipping rates, revised shipping alliances and the potential for new port fees.”
Chris Rogers, Head of Supply Chain Research, for S&P Global Market Intelligence, said in an interview that given the myriad of moving parts shippers are facing, including supply chain uncertainty, a lack of predictability, and ongoing tariff pressures, there are a few different approaches they should keep in mind.
“Part one is, bring in what you can while you can, and part two is, pass through what you can,” he explained. “Can you convince your suppliers to take a bit of a hit? The retailers tried that in China and got a bit of a slap on the wrists from the Chinese government. Increase your customer prices is another one. Companies don’t like to do that too often, so that’s why we’re starting to see some of these slightly innovative approaches, like tariff surcharges and being very transparent and saying, “it costs us an extra $20 to bring it into the country. You’re going have to pay that because we still have to make money selling you stuff. So tactically, it is more early shipping, so maybe mark up the second quarter numbers a bit. We’re expecting trade to fall in the second quarter.
But that 10% tariff is still there, and ultimately shipping times are six-to-eight weeks. If you go expedited, you have to get it out of the building, and you have to be advising the factory straight away. Peak Season decisions for back to school are being made right now. The Peak Season decisions for toys and stuff are being made in the next couple of months. The companies with large amounts of imports have almost got more certainty in their planning because they know it’s going to be huge. The problem is if you’re importing from Vietnam or Mexico or wherever, you just don’t know, as there might be a change.”
