The impact of President Trump’s tariffs was apparent in the new edition of the Port Tracker report, which was released today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, with the report explaining that United States-bound cargo is expected to decline in May, for the first time in more than a year-and-a-half.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.”
What’s more, Gold added that the U.S. tariffs, including a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, coupled with reciprocal tariffs on dozens of nations and a 145% tariff on China, are occurring at what he called the most important time in the buying process for retailers. Which he said has led to many retailers, especially smaller ones, cancelling orders, with concerns about the coming months and also future orders.
For March, the most recent month for which data is available, United States imports came in at 2.15 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), marking a 5.5% increase compared to February (the busiest February in three years) and an 11.3% annual increase.
Port Tracker issued projections for and the subsequent months, including:
- April, at 2.2 million TEU, for a 9.1% annual increase;
- May, at 1.81 million TEU, for a 12.9% annual decrease, which would snap a 19-month stretch of annual growth;
- June, at 1.71 million TEU, for a 20.2% annual decrease, which would mark the lowest monthly tally since March 2023;
- July, at 1.77 million TEU, for a 23.4% annual decrease;
- August, at 1.82 million TEU, for a 21.5% annual decrease; and
- September, at 1.79 million TEU, for a 21.2% annual decrease
The report said that U.S.-bound imports are expected to be down at least 20%, from June into the fall, with the annual total potentially down by 10%.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the application of tariffs as a means of economic coercion on trading partners effectively broadens the impact of these taxes on imports into a trade war affecting all parties particularly when tariffs are applied in an overtly aggressive manner.
While conditions have shifted due to the ongoing tariff situation, Hackett made it clear that global trade activity, is, by no means, at a complete standstill.
“Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” noted Hackett. “We have seen the cancellation of some services as ships are shifted to Asia-Europe and African routes, which remain relatively robust. The result of this is fewer port calls by ships on the Transpacific trade from China: the Port of Los Angeles reported that 25% of its calls in May have been cancelled. Nonetheless, most of Asia is under 10% tariffs rather than the 145% faced by China and is therefore less impacted. China is only a part of the total Asian trade.
Terminals are not empty. Perhaps a photo of Los Angeles or Long Beach ports over the weekend shows few ships, but that is typical. And when considering global trade, it’s important to remember that the U.S. is not the world. Trade flows will continue normally for most regions, albeit slightly weaker due to the negative impact of the economic environment.”
