Trucking demand likely will remain relatively flat in 2026, continuing about a three-year market slump in industrial activity.
That’s the word from Indianapolis-based freight transportation consultancy FTR. But there are some green shoots out there that optimists can point to as the economic uncertainty that hung over from the past couple of years may finally dissipate in 2026.
Avery Vise, vice president of trucking for FTR research group, said during a Jan. 8 webinar that the freight market since last Thanksgiving has seen a strong rise in trucking rates during what usually is a weak period for trucking rates. Dry van rates for most of last year were around what they were in 2023. But that was driven mostly by reductions in trucking capacity.
“That cannot continue, and it will not continue,” Vise explained. “We would expect a significant drop in dry van rates since the end of last year.”
The actual cause of the rate increase from last Thanksgiving is unclear, Vise said. “The next few weeks will be interesting to see if that can hold.”
From a seasonal standpoint, that six-week period has been the strongest in the trucking dry van market since 2022, Vise added,
“We’ve taken a lot of capacity out of the market,” Vise said, citing greater enforcement of English proficiency by foreign-born drivers. He said there are still about 88,000 more trucking entities in the market today than during the COVID epidemic of 2021.
Right now, spot rates rose about 2% last year. But for 2026, FTR’s forecast is for 3.6% growth in spot rates this year. Contract rates, which were about 1-1.5% higher last year, are forecast for 2.6% growth.
“Yes, it’s technically a recovery but it is not a particularly encouraging report,” said Vise.
The bigger issues are three-fold—insurance costs, diesel fuel prices and overall economy.
An April 28 directive by President Donald Trump’s executive order on non-domiciled truck drivers is putting pressure on driver capacity. Approximately 11,000 drivers have already been placed out of service this year, mostly in Texas and Wyoming,
“Overall, if you take the peak of enforcement, 24,000 drivers have been taken out of the market,” Vise said. While it sounds like a lot, it is actually less than 1% of truck driver capacity in this country.
Another factor in some trucking companies’ costs is the surge in trucking insurance premiums, Vise said. This began at the start of 2025, but continued into this year. Double-digit premium increases are not uncommon in trucking insurance.
“We may have seen an impact of this already,” Vise said.
Because there is more clarity on tariffs as well as truck emission requirements taking effect in 2027 by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), that has given trucking fleets a rare positive sign on adding capacity to their fleets.
The large increase in personal health insurance premiums also has potential financial pressure on U.S. consumers, especially by Americans on the lower end of the financial ladder. This could also create some ambiguity in assessing freight demand in this country.
Another factor potentially affecting the trucking market is the proposed merger between the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads, an $85 billion combination. The procedural process already has begun but the actual merger is not expected before 2027, at the earliest, rail experts said.
If the merger is approved by the Surface Transportation Board, it will not be before mid-2027 that shippers would have to worry about integration improvements between the two large railroads.
Jonathan Starks, CEO of FTR, said that tariffs have “created a whiplash environment” for U.S. manufacturers and importers. For October, the tariff rate was around 11%. This year, so far, the tariff impact has been around 16-18%.
“We’re a little more volatile now,” Starks said.
This uncertainty has put pressure on housing, durables and other markets. But Starks said he expects “decent’ growth in housing, especially if home mortgage rates fall below 6%. As for durables, Starks said he doesn’t see “anything remarkable” in durables.
“It’s still being held up by those higher income markets,” Starks said.
On the industrial economy, he said the weakness that began in 2024 is ebbing, “As of right now, we’re not anticipating any area of growth.” Perhaps there is a slight increase, perhaps as high as 4 to 5%.
On equipment investment, the picture is worse. Last year there was some investment in pre-buying but Starks is not expecting any type of “robust” activity in this market.
The manufacturing environment that was very strong in early 2025 “has accelerated into this year.” But some “normal investment activity” may cause some modest improvement in areas such as Class 8 truck buying.
“How sustainable is this? There will continue to be weakness this year before we get into a growth thesis in 2026,” Starks said.
Data centers are not creating sustained freight demand either, Starks said. So those expecting data center manufacturing to create demand for trucking services will likely be disappointed, FTR officials said.
“It’s not like we will be driving 4-to-5% market side improvement,” Starks said.
