United States-bound retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of the year, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which issued earlier today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“With tariffs still a matter of debate in the courts and in Congress, their effect on imports is being clearly seen,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The situation underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies that support supply chain certainty and reliability, business planning and consumer affordability. Tariffs are a tax on U.S. businesses that is ultimately paid by consumers through higher prices.”
The report added that Supreme Court decision, regarding the legality of the White House’s implementation of IEEPA tariffs, “could come at any time,” explaining that should the Court rule against the White House, that there are concerns the White House could take steps to move forward with tariffs through other methods that it said could lead to “further challenges and uncertainty.”
For December, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report (excluding missing data from the Ports of Houston and Charleston), came in at 1.99 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), falling 1.7% compared to November and rising 6.6% annually.
Port Tracker issued projections for January and the subsequent months, including:
- January, at 2.11 million TEU, down 5.2% annually (which would be its first sequential gain in since July 2025, with retailers bringing in merchandise in advance of the Lunar New Year in Asia next month);
- February, at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1% annually;
- March, at 1.89 million TEU, down 12% annually;
- April, at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1% annually;
- May, at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3%, which would mark the first annual gain since August 2025); and
- June, at 2.12 million TEU, up 8% annually
Should these tallies come to fruition, Port Tracker said that the first half of 2026 would come in at 12.27 million TEU, a 2% annual decrease, with the full-year pegged to be down 2.3% annually. Addressing the forecasted May and June estimates, showing annual gains, the report attributed that to the significant import drop-off for those months in 2025, resultant of imports falling off at that time last year, due to the announcement of the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the use of tariffs as a weapon of coercion is resulting in a global change in trade relations, adding that this economic and financial stress on reliable supply chains and shipping have become evident, using Canada’s shift to increasing trade and investment with the European Union and China, as well as the EU agreeing to a trade deal with India as examples.
“Supply chain resilience efforts became more widespread following the pandemic, but uncertainty about where to establish redundancy can add additional costs,” he wrote. “Shippers may see reduced rates in the coming years, however. Carriers that recently benefited from strong profits now face negative returns, as already reported by Maersk and ONE. The profit outlook will worsen for some as voyages through the Suez Canal resume, releasing excess supply capacity alongside the delivery of new ships from a hefty orderbook. While lower rates will offer a reprieve for shippers, they serve as a reminder of a supply chain faced with excess capacity and limited economic growth.”
