The national average price per gallon of diesel gasoline rose for the tenth consecutive week, for the week of March 9, according to data issued today by the Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA).
With oil and gasoline prices seeing significant increases since the recently-launched joint strikes by the United States and Israel less than two weeks ago, in an initiative geared towards halting Iran’s development of nuclear weapons, the national diesel average, for the week of May 9, came in at $4.859 per gallon, marking a $1.277 annual gain and an $0.855 gain compared to the same week in 2024.
This represents the highest weekly diesel average since a $4.622 reading, going back to the week of January 30, 2023, and the largest weekly gain since a $0.745 March 7, 2022 weekly gain, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Rising 8.8 cents, the national average, for the week of March 2, came in at $3.897 per gallon, following a 9.8-cent gain, to $3.809, for the week of February 23—which marked the previously highest weekly gain since a 9.4-cent increase, to $3.50, for the week of January 26, prior to this week. This was preceded by a 2.3-cent gain, to $3.711, for the week of February 16, and 0.007-cetn increase, to $3.688, for the week of February 9.
This gain followed three weeks of sharp gains, including: a 5.7-cent increase, to $3.861, for the week of February 2; a 9.4-cent increase, to $3.50, for the week of January 26, and a 7.1-cent increase, to $3.530 per gallon, for the week of January 19. The latter two weeks of gains represent the highest ones since a 20.4-cent increase, to $3.775 per gallon, for the week of June 23, 2025.
WTI crude is currently trading at $83.38 on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down from a high of $119.98 on March 9.
An Associated Press report cited a Tweet from Patrick De Haan, a petroleum analyst at GasBuddy, stating the following on March 9: “Can’t underscore what a massive jolt this is to the logistics, trucking, (agriculture) sectors.”
The report added that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the waterway that carries a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquified natural gas, already has caused problems for the shipping industry, with quickly rising oil and gas prices expected to add to the burden. It also noted that fuel surcharges will also rise—as shipping companies aim to pass along higher costs to their customers, ultimately making goods more expensive.
Armada Corporate Intelligence Managing Director Keith Prather told LM the biggest concern, in the supply chain, at the moment, is the price of diesel.
“From a carrier perspective, like in trucking, historically, when you see prices rise like they did in 2008 and also in 2022, we started seeing a material loss of capacity in the trucking industry,” he said. “For a lot of smaller firms who just don’t have the cash flow, they can’t flip those invoices, and they are at a point where they literally cannot fill their trucks. I don’t know how it’s going to end, but, again, from a supply chain perspective, diesel is probably the biggest impact.
On the maritime side, I think, adding another 11-to-12 days of transit around the Cape of Good Hope is going to be kind of the norm for at least the short-term. From an economic perspective, 30 days of disruption seems to be that critical point. If we go up to and beyond 30 days, then we start having a material global impact on the economy. If we see kind of see conditions continue to be volatile inside Iran, and we then see the rest of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea and other areas, other Middle Eastern partners starting to free up the flow of goods and the movement of materials, then we probably, we probably see this whole situation calm down, and the economy kind of reverts back to, sort of fundamentally, where it was before the conflict started and off We’ve got some critical weeks ahead of us. I think everyone’s going to really pay attention to.”
Recent disruptions across global shipping lanes are already adding pressure.
Data released by E2open shows the conflict has already begun to affect freight flows.
According to the company’s latest situation report:
- 4 in 9 logistics organizations have experienced air freight disruption
- 1 in 3 have experienced ocean freight disruption
- About 33,700 ocean shipments across roughly 200 vessels have been disrupted due to rerouted voyages and schedule changes
- Around 11,000 air shipments have been disrupted, representing a 4.3% disruption rate
While these disruptions are centered on global trade lanes, they still influence domestic transportation costs because fuel markets respond quickly to geopolitical risk.
