The Iran conflict, and related gains in fuel prices, and tariffs are having different impacts on United States-bound retail container import volumes, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued earlier today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“Just because retailers don’t import a lot of merchandise from the Middle East doesn’t mean the U.S. supply chain isn’t affected by the turmoil there,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The supply chain is global and disruptions anywhere along it can have ripple effects whether it’s rerouting of vessels, equipment out of position, higher fuel costs for shippers or rising gas prices that leave less money in consumers’ pockets. Retailers are monitoring the situation on a daily basis and working with their transportation partners to minimize any impact. In the meantime, retailers continue to face rising tariffs and continued trade policy uncertainty that put downward pressure on imports and upward pressure on prices.”
As previously reported by LM, in February, the United States Supreme Court ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, President Trump announced a temporary 150-day 10% tariff, using Section 11 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the possibility of raising it to 15%. The administration is also considering launching new trade investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. That was followed by the White House recently adjusting Section 232 tariffs imposed last year on imported steel, aluminum, and copper, as well as announcing new Section 232 tariffs on pharmaceutical products and ingredients.
For February, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report (minus the Port of New York/New Jersey), came in at 1.95 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), for a 7.5% sequential decrease and a 4.2% annual decrease, with the report observing that February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday.
Port Tracker issued projections for March and the subsequent months, including:
- March, at 1.97 million TEU, down 8.3% annually;
- April, at 2.08 million TEU, down 5.6% annually;
- May, at 2.09 million TEU, 7.3%, which would mark the first annual gain since August 2025);
- June, at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.9% annually;
- July, at 2.2 million TEU, down 8% annually; and
- August, at 2.18 million TEU, down 6% annually
Should these projections come to fruition, the report said volumes for the first half of 2026 would be down 1.8% annually, to 12.3 million TEU, with the report noting that the projected May and June gains are attributed to the drop-off in imports for those months a year ago, following the April 2025 rollout of the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that volume at U.S. container imports has been slowed by tariffs but is not being significantly affected by the situation in Iran because little U.S. container cargo comes from the region. And he added that the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz is driving up the price of fuel for container ships worldwide at the same time consumers are paying more for gasoline. What’s more, he said ports in Asia depend on fuel from the Persian Gulf and could see shortages if the conflict is not resolved soon, adding it is too soon to assess the impact of the two-week ceasefire announced on Tuesday.
“The United States is less impacted operationally as there is no shortage of fuel at U.S. ports, but the price of fuel here is based on international pricing,” Hackett said. “Higher fuel costs drive up the price of shipping a container for either import or export and ultimately have an inflationary impact on consumers and other end users.”
