United States-bound containerized freight imports saw a slight annual decline in March, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
March imports, at 2.46 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), fell 0.5% annually, marking the seventh consecutive month of annual declines, while topping February’s 2.19 million TEU (which was down 5.2% annually), January’s 2.42 million TEU (which was down 5.4% annually), December’s 2.32 million TEU, and trailing November’s 2.63 million TEU, October’s 2.71 million TEU, below September’s 2.72 million TEU, August’s 2.9 million TEU, and July’s 3.01 million TEU (which topped the 3 million TEU mark for the first time and came on the heels of a June decline, coupled with importers looking to optimize sourcing following the White House’s reciprocal tariffs related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on most U.S. trading partners, which went into effect on August 7, 2025).
On a year-to-date basis, through March, total imports, at 7.35 million TEU, are down 3.8% annually.
The firm explained that the reduction in March’s annual decline was due, in large part, to what it called an acceleration in the growth of imports of automotive components, which were 10.8% higher in March compared to 6.8% in February) and furniture, which offset continued weakness in capital goods. It added that there was also an acceleration in imports of consumer durables, to a 16.4% growth compared to 6.2% in February).
Addressing the impact of tariffs on imports, the firm pointed out that the average tariff rate on U.S. imports fell to 9.0% in February, down from January’s 11.2%, while noting that, “the outlook remains volatile for supply chain decision-makers.” And it added that the current 10% Section 122 tariffs could be replaced with Section 301 tariffs at a later date, observing that recent actions on metal activity decrease the overall tariff level, with further front-loading activity, in order to get in front of potential tariff hikes, remaining a possibility.
In an interview with LM, Chris Rogers, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Head of Research, said that a larger decrease in imports was anticipated in March, noting that importers had expected the U.S. Supreme Court to rule against the legality of the IEEPA tariffs, with whatever followed was going to be lower.
“So, if you were shipping out of ASEAN or China, you’re north of 20% and Section 122 [tariffs], only allows you 15% but because the USTR was clear that the tariff wall would be rebuilt, then at some point you’d be back to 20%,” he said. “So, at a minimum, you had kind of a window where rates were probably going to be lower. Therefore, I think what you might be seeing in March is some pull forward from Q2. Back in the day, we got excited if a tariff went from 2% to 3%, whereas now it’s 10%, 20%, 40% but actually, saving that 10 percentage points is still a big deal.”
With tariff rates having already dipped a bit in February, Rogers explained there was already a degree of that front-loading going in, coupled with the mix of products that were growing versus the ones that weren’t growing.
To that end, he noted that the auto sector, has pretty much returned to business as usual, but what is weighing on importers’ minds is what happens with USCMA, which is more of a third quarter issue.
Addressing imports for discretionary consumer goods, which were off in the first quarter 2025, and led to increased front loading, given the slim profit margins for many retailers, Rogers explained that when there is a window in time where they can pull cargo forward, they are going do it, calling it Front-loading 2.0.
Looking ahead, S&P Global Market Intelligence is calling for inbound import volumes to the U.S. to decline at a quicker rate, as volumes normalize back to historic levels, following five years of pandemic, tariff, and conflict disruptions—with a 12.9% annual decline expected in 2026, followed by a recovery in 2027.
