An earlier than usual Peak Season is nearing the finish line this month, prior to an anticipated decline in United States-bound container import volumes over the balance of the year, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“We had an early peak season this year as retailers brought in merchandise ahead of tariff changes in late July and responded to other uncertainties in the supply chain like the ongoing disruption brought by the conflict in Iran,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “One round of tariffs has been replaced with another, but retailers will be well stocked for the coming holiday season. Retailers know how to adapt to shifting situations and are well prepared to meet consumers’ demand for affordability and choice.”
For June, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports covered in the report, handled 2.22 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), up 13.2% annually, as June 2027 saw declining imports related to the timing of the White House’s “Liberation Day,” and fell 0.7% sequentially. For the first half of 2026, the report said total imports, at 12.7 million TEU, were up 1.1% annually.
Port Tracker issued projections for July and the subsequent months, including:
- July, at 2.21 million TEU, down 7.6% annually;
- August, at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.2% annually (with the report noting that imports are expected to decline steadily each month over the balance of the year, with volumes expected to be above 2025 levels;
- September, at 2.16 million TEU, up 2.8% annually;
- October, at 2.13 million TEU, up 2.7% annually;
- November, at 2.03 million TEU, up 0.3% annually; and
- December, at 2.06 million TEU, up 2.5% annually
The report’s authors explained that the highest-volume month of 2026 was May, at 2.24 million TEU, adding that Peak Season, which typically comes on late summer or fall, is earlier and also smoother than in recent years, due to various factors, ranging from supply chain disruptions to expected tariff increases.
The report said that total 2026 volume is expected to come in at 25.5 million TEU, for a 0.1% annual gain.
“Looking at events globally, the month also seems short of definitive news that points to meaningful insights into economic growth,” Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report. “The US economy grew by 1.5% year-on-year in the second quarter, dragged down from 2.1% the quarter before in part due to the surge in imports driven by businesses front-loading shipments ahead of anticipated tariff increases. Even so, consumer spending has remained resilient despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty: total retail and food services sales in the second quarter were up 6.4% from the same period a year ago. Consumers might have been expected to become more cautious as cost-of-living pressures persist, with energy prices in particular at the forefront of the news. Crude oil prices continue to fluctuate as intermittent Iran ceasefire talks fail to stop attacks from either side or reopen the Strait of Hormuz.”
