The new edition of the Trucking Conditions Index, which was recently issued by FTR, remained in very strong territory.
According to FTR, a TCI reading above zero represents an adequate trucking environment, with readings above 10 indicating that volumes, prices and margin are in a good range for carriers.
And it explained that the TCI tracks the changes representing five major conditions in the U.S. truck market. These conditions include: freight volumes, freight rates, fleet capacity, fuel prices, and financing costs. Individual metrics are combined into a single index indicating the industry’s overall health. A positive score represents good, optimistic conditions. And a negative score represents bad, pessimistic conditions. Readings near zero are consistent with a neutral operating environment, and double-digit readings in either direction suggest significant operating changes are likely.
For June, the most recent month for which data is available, the TCI reading came in at 17.4, which came in below May’s 20.4, an all-time high for the TCI—which was preceded by April’s 11.6.
The firm explained that June’s reading continued to reflect what it called a very favorable market for carriers, observing that slightly less robust freight rate growth was partially offset by lower diesel prices in June to produce overall market conditions that were not quite as positive as those in May, while also noting that the outlook for carriers is a bit stronger than it was in the prior forecast.
“We expect the market to be favorable for carriers throughout our two-year forecast horizon, but the recovery appears to be stabilizing,” said Avery Vise, FTR’s vice president of trucking. “For example, spot rates in July softened as seasonally expected even though fuel prices rose sharply – quite a different dynamic than what occurred in March. Even if spot rates have peaked, contract rates likely will continue to rise well into 2027. To this point, the truck freight market’s strength is principally due to supply-side constraints—especially for dry van and refrigerated operations. An encouraging signal is the ongoing recovery in manufacturing demand, and consumer spending has been solid. Data center construction clearly has boosted flatbed especially. Concerns include slowing U.S. job growth, a persistently weak housing sector, and stubborn price inflation for both consumers and businesses. Although freight demand still doesn’t look that strong, we see little sign that trucking capacity will rise substantially in the near term.”
