While there remains more than a few issues to monitor in the logistics space—including things like diesel prices related to the Iran conflict, trade and tariff pressures, the ongoing emergence of AI within logistics, the potential Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern merger, and the Supreme Court ruling on freight brokerage negligence, among others—there are also clearly some bright spots emerging as well.
Those bright spots include things like improving freight volumes, carrier rate gains (driven largely by reduced capacity rather than rising demand), and an industrial economy regaining its footing on the heels of an extensive downturn, in addition to other factors. Collectively, these things are helping drive up various key metrics by which logistics and supply chain operational performance are viewed and measured, which were highlighted in the new edition of the Logistics Manager’s Index, which was released earlier this month.
The monthly LMI is a joint project among researchers from Arizona State University, Colorado State University, University of Nevada, Reno, Florida Atlantic University, and Rutgers University, and also receives support by Council of Supply Management Professionals (CSCMP). CSCMP. The LMI is written by Zac Rogers Ph.D., Steven Carnovale Ph.D., Shen Yeniyurt Ph.D., Ron Lembke Ph.D., and Dale Rogers Ph.D.
The report’s authors explained that the LMI score, or reading, is based on eight “unique components” within the logistics sector, including: inventory levels and costs, warehousing capacity, utilization and prices and transportation capacity, utilization, and prices.
The April LMI reading came in at 69.9 (a reading above 50 indicates growth is occurring), marking a 4.2% gain over March’s 65.7, turning in its fastest expansion rate going back to March 2022’s 76.2, with the report explaining that this growth is being driven by continued expansion in the freight market. Not surprisingly, a key metric driving up the April LMI reading was a 5.6% gain in prices, to 95.0, its second-fastest rate of expansion for any metric in the nearly 10-year history of the LMI.
“We have not seen transportation prices grow this quickly in the nearly 10-years of the LMI,” noted Dr. Dale Rogers in the report. “Because the Logistics Managers Index allows us to see the future a little bit as products rolls through the supply chain towards the consumer, we would have to guess that we will see a fair amount to inflation in GDP in two or three months. The LMI team has speculated for about a year that we would see the real impact of the tariffs sometime during Summer 2026, but accompanied by the Iran War the impacts of two inflationary events could be substantial. We hope this is just temporary, but we are starting to see some warning signs about the economy as we head for the back end of the year.”
And while transportation prices are up, transportation capacity dimmed in April, coming in at 28.4, down 10.9% from March levels, with the 66.6% difference between the two metrics marking the largest on record, for the LMI.
Collectively, the report explained that the LMI has never previously become simultaneously tighter or more expensive.
“Freight markets were already on a strong upward trajectory coming into 2026,” the LMI stated. “The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and subsequent increase in fuel costs have supercharged these movements. While this is good news for carriers in the near-term, it remains unclear what the long-term effects will be.”
Looking at other metrics, the LMI noted that with Inventory Costs (down 1.5% to 74.7) and Warehousing Prices (up 5.3% to 72.7) topping 70.0, it is viewed as the threshold for what it called significant expansion. What’s more when aggregating those two metrics, along with Transportation Prices, it points to upward movements in logistics costs at a total of 242.4, for its fastest rate of expansion since March 2022 and a 46.8% jump from December’s 195.7—with previous aggregate cosrs readings above 240.0 viewed as what the LMI called “strongly significantly predictive of future supply-induced inflation.”
As for inventories, the LMI reported that Inventory Levels rose 1.5%, to 56.3, and Inventory Costs fell 1.5%, to 74.7, with the LMI pointing out that the reason freight markets remain resilient is partially because low inventories indicate that companies need to keep goods moving. And with Inventory Levels rising over April, it supports industry reportage that inventories are heading up, with firms consolidating shipments in order to avoid transportation surcharges.
It goes without saying that these are interesting, perhaps even extraordinary, times in freight transportation, supply chain, and logistics, with the LMI’s data and analysis, as usual, helping to put it into clear perspective. Given the myriad unknowns these days, whether it be what happens with gas prices, inflation, rates, tariffs, and many other factors, it helps to have the sharp context the LMI provides for all industry stakeholders. At a time when things are far from linear in our space, it helps to have data like this to get a better sense of where things are and also where they may be going.
