The forecast for United States-bound retail container volumes, in the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued earlier today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates, remains similar to the one in its previous edition, with gains expected in June, to be followed by subsequent declines in the following summer months, with a gain not expected until October.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“We expect to see a year-over-year increase this month that’s partly driven by retailers bringing in merchandise early because of higher costs from tariffs or fuel prices that could come starting in August,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “Nonetheless, the ongoing trend is for lower imports as the conflict in Iran continues to cause higher inflation and economic uncertainty.”
For April, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports covered in the report, handled 2.05 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), decreasing 5.1% sequentially and 7.3% annually, with this tally not including data from the Port of New York and New Jersey.
Port Tracker issued projections for May and the subsequent months, including:
- May, at 2.14 million TEU, up 9.7% annually (due to May 2025 seeing declines following the White House’s Liberation Day tariffs);
- June, at 2.25 million TEU, up 14.3% annually, paced by low imports in June 2025;
- July, at 2.19 million TEU, down 8.4% annually;
- August, at 2.12 million TEU, down 8.6% annually; and
- September, at 2.06 million TEU, down 2.2% annually; and
- October, at 2.08 million TEU, up 0.1% annually
Should those numbers come to fruition, the first half of 2026 would come in at 12.6 million TEU, for a 0.6% annual gain, partially paced by May-June increases, the report said.
In addition to the expected June annual gain related to the Liberation Day timing comparisons, Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett observed in the report that hut higher shipping costs and worries about additional tariffs imposed after those tariffs were ruled illegal by the Supreme Court are also a concern.
“We have increased our outlook for June cargo volume as retailers bring forward their peak season cargo to mitigate increasing shipping costs as carriers pass along the sharply rising cost of fuel and because of concerns about punitive replacement tariffs,” Hackett said. “The current import surge will likely last into July, with an early peak season that resembles the more recent pattern of raised volume rather than a sharp peak. After this, we expect a weakening in import volume as consumer uncertainty remains high and the impact of increasing inflation takes its toll.”
