Keeping in line with an assessment made in its previous edition, United States-bound retail container import volumes are expected to see annual declines over the first half of the year, due largely to ongoing tariff-driven uncertainty and potentially the Iran conflict, which is now in its second week, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued earlier today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs but other tariffs have already been announced and others will be coming, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “The need for clear and predictable trade policy remains, and long-term planning continues to be difficult for merchants and other businesses. While we agree with holding our trading partners accountable and looking for more domestic manufacturing opportunities, it needs to be understood that tariffs drive up costs for businesses and prices for consumers. They should be used in a strategic manner. In addition to tariffs, we are closely watching the situation in Iran and the potential impact it will have on retail supply chains.”
As previously reported by LM, the United States Supreme Court ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). In response, President Trump announced a temporary 150-day 10% tariff, using Section 11 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the possibility of raising it to 15%. The administration is also considering launching new trade investigations under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974.
Separately Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said it is still too early to see any effect on U.S. container imports from the recent actions involving Iran.
For January, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report (minus the Ports of New York/New Jersey and Miami, whom each had not yet reported their data at press time), came in at 2.08 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU, marking a 3.8% gain over December and down 6.4% year over year.
Port Tracker issued projections for February and the subsequent months, including:
- February, at 2.01 million TEU, down 1.3% annually;
- March, at 1.91 million TEU, down 11.2% annually;
- April, at 2.03 million TEU, down 8.1% annually;
- May, at 2.09 million TEU, 7%, which would mark the first annual gain since August 2025);
- June, at 2.1 million TEU, up 6.8% annually; and
- July, at 2.2 million TEU, down 8%
Should these estimates come to fruition, those numbers would bring the first half of 2026 to 12.21 million TEU, down 2.5% from 12.53 million TEU during the same period in 2025. The year-over-year increases in May and June are largely because of the sharp drop-off in imports during those months last year after “Liberation Day” tariffs were announced in April 2025. Imports during 2025 came in at 25.4 million TEU, down 0.3% from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
“The Supreme Court’s ruling that President Donald Trump can’t use the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs has resulted in confusion for importers and trade partners alike,” wrote Hackett. “And a new across-the-board tariff of 10-15% imposed in lieu of the IEEPA tariffs raises questions about recent trade deals, with some trading partners including China and India benefiting since that rate lowers their effective tariff rate. With the new tariffs also likely to be challenged, there is uncertainty in supply chains as managers are faced with the decision of how best to source goods. What will occur beyond the 150-day limit on the Section 122 tariff is unclear. Legal arguments against the levy will ensure a difficult process, and the situation will not be helped by the politics of the 2026 mid-term elections.”
