United States-bound containerized freight imports started 2026 where 2025 left off, with declining volumes, according to data recently issued by S&P Global Market Intelligence.
January imports, at 2.42 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), fell 5.5% annually, marking the fifth straight month of annual declines, while topping December’s 2.32 million TEU, and trailing November’s 2.63 million TEU, October’s 2.71 million TEU, below September’s 2.72 million TEU, August’s 2.9 million TEU, and July’s 3.01 million TEU (which topped the 3 million TEU mark for the first time and came on the heels of a June decline, coupled with importers looking to optimize sourcing following the White House’s reciprocal tariffs related to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act on most U.S. trading partners, which went into effect on August 7).
The firm explained that despite the burden from U.S. import tariffs has declined, the annual volume decline reflects destocking processes, coupled with weak consumer sector activity, with the exception of furniture, as durable goods imports headed up 4.17% in January, paced by furniture’s 21.4% gain. Home appliances and apparel imports were down 27.0% and 20.4%, respectively, with S&P Global Market Intelligence observing that these sectors have been balancing a mix of International Economic Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA) and combined IEEPA and Section 232 tariffs.
What’s more, it noted that that rapidly changing state of U.S. import duties served as a major theme of 2025 but has somewhat quelled, due to new trade deals signed and also the exemption of food products from duties. And it added that in looking ahead, timing and one-off effects reduce future forecasting certainty, due to factors like the expected Supreme Court ruling on the legality of the White House’s implementation of IEEPA tariffs and the Lunar New Year holiday arriving on its latest date since 2015.
In an interview with LM, Chris Rogers, Head of supply chain research for SMP Global Market Intelligence, said that 2025 was a year of extreme volatility, with a big run-up in container volumes earlier in the year, followed by minimal growth over the second and third quarters amid tariff stops and starts and a fourth quarter slow down.
“What we saw in the fourth quarter and then coming into January is the hangover from last year’s inventory building,” he said. “So, effectively, in the fourth quarter of last year, U.S. seaborne imports were down by around 5.5%, followed by another 5.5% decline in January. we’re kind of sliding down the other side is how I would characterize it.”
Demand also remains an issue, the firm said, with a mixed picture, of sorts, with U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers upping their improving domestic demand-related purchases, whereas consumer sentiment is down 20% annually. That was reflected in the firm’s 2026 forecast of U.S.-bound imports to be down 8.2% annually, with the first quarter pegged to be down 14.5% annually and improving to a 9.6% annual gain by the fourth quarter.
To that end, Rogers explained that consumer spending collectively trails the pace of previous levels, despite seeing upticks in certain segments, adding that a “return of the consumer” is needed in 2026. As for manufacturing demand, he noted that with some U.S. recovery being driven by domestic orders, effectively American firms making more orders.
“We have seen a lot of buying manufacturing equipment normally have that have kind of put some of that spending on hold while they invest in AI and software tools,” he said. “The big question is whether we’ll see a slew of investment for reshoring. “So, the response to tariffs is, you don’t import it. You make it in the United States. Now, if anything, that reshoring approach will act as a drag on demand for inbound services shipping services over time, because if you’re making more in America with American materials, that reduces the need for those imports. We do see the potential, certainly over the next five years that you’ll start to see, if the Trump administration is successful in reshoring manufacturing, that more trade will be focused on raw materials, plastic, wood, metals, and it will be on assembled goods. So not only will we see lower volumes, we’ll also see a change in the shape of what’s being imported in favor of those raw materials rather than finished goods.”
