United States-bound retail container import volumes are expected to continue to trail 2025 levels in to the early fall, despite projected May and June gains, according to the new edition of the Global Port Tracker report, which was issued earlier today by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and maritime consultancy Hackett Associates.
The ports surveyed in the report include: Los Angeles/Long Beach; Oakland; Tacoma; Seattle; Houston; New York/New Jersey; Hampton Roads; Charleston, and Savannah; Miami; Jacksonville; and Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Port Everglades.
Authors of the report explained that cargo import numbers do not correlate directly with retail sales or employment because they count only the number of cargo containers brought into the country, not the value of the merchandise inside them, adding that the amount of merchandise imported provides a rough barometer of retailers’ expectations.
“The numbers show a year-over-year increase for the next two months, but that’s only because of the sharp fall-off in imports after ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs were announced in April 2025,” NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence falling among global economic uncertainty driven by the conflict in Iran, the overall trend of lower imports is expected to continue after that.”
For March, the most recent month for which data is available, U.S. imports, for the ports surveyed in the report came in at 2.16 million TEU (Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units), for a 13.6% sequential decrease and a 0.6% annual decrease, with the report observing that February is traditionally the slowest month of the year, due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday, coupled with bad weather delaying the arrival of cargo at some U.S. ports.
Port Tracker issued projections for April and the subsequent months, including:
- April, at 2.13 million TEU, down 3.6% annually;
- May, at 2.17 million TEU, up 11.1% annually;
- June, at 2.13 million TEU, up 8.2% annually;
- July, at 2.2 million TEU, down 7.8% annually;
- August, at 2.19 million TEU, down 5.5% annually; and
- September, at 2.08 million TEU, down 1.3% annually
Should these projections come to fruition, the report said volumes for the first half of 2026 would be up 0.5% annually, to 12.59 million TEU, with the report noting that the projected May and June gains are attributed to the drop-off in imports for those months a year ago, following the April 2025 rollout of the White House’s “Liberation Day” tariffs.
Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett wrote in the report that the rebuilding of inventory by retailers and domestic industries has helped support the flow of containerized imports this year but volumes are clearly down year-over-year.
“Industrial production has proven resilient to economic volatility but consumer sentiment has begun to erode,” wrote Hackett. “The protracted Iran crisis is increasingly weighing on gross national product as rising inflation impacts household incomes, although consumers have mitigated these pressures by drawing down savings. The other factor impacting trade remains the use of tariffs as a political tool, despite the ruling by the Supreme Court against tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. The volatility continues with the latest threat against trade with the European Union by raising the 15% tariff on cars and trucks to 25%. Whether this is legal is a question, and it will likely result in an equivalent response from Europe. Containerized imports in the first quarter were down year over year, and forward demand is weakening. Stalling re-stocking efforts and rising geopolitical tensions are increasingly clouding the outlook.”
